Sunday, December 02, 2007

How to stage a coup like a jackass!

On the same day that Senator and His Most Incompetent Putchist Antonio Trilanes launched his ill-fated “coup” at a five-star hotel, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) announced that the Philippine economy grew by 6.6 percent. The incident seems to remind us just how the dynamics of the Philippine economy has decoupled from our rambunctious politics. Nice trend, shall I say.

The numbers says it’s actually a pretty broad-based growth, with agriculture, industry, and services contributing altogether. With a 7.3 percent growth in the first quarter, 7.5 percent in the second, and a possible surge in the fourth quarter, we may yet grow close to or higher than 7 percent.

We sneer at these growth numbers, of course. They have yet to translate into lower poverty numbers. True. But we have been at this growth rates quite recently, after hovering at 5-6 percent in the last three years. Experience by the Asian tigers showed they grew 5-7 percent consistently for ten or twenty years before they started licking poverty. This means we have to growth at this rate or higher in the next ten years before we can see substantial reduction in poverty. So it’s a start, and its better late than never.

GMA has nothing to do with this. These improving growth numbers are legacies of the first wave of reforms done following the Edsa Revolution. So the credit goes elsewhere, especially Cory and FVR, and of course, to OFWs, the farmers, business, and entrepreneurs. Had GMA proved to be a better president, we could have achieved higher growth rates, probably at par with Vietnam and India (7-8 percent).

Certainly, she should go, and go to jail (for scandals like NBN, fertilizer scams etc), but can’t we wait two years for the 2010 election? That’s a better option than “taking over” a hotel and making us the laughingstock of the world.

Now that Trillanes is in jail, the latest rumor says he is planning to write a book entitled How to Stage a Coup Like a Jackass!

9 comments:

Urbano dela Cruz said...

let's hope the decoupling was permanent. and that the growth in the economy generates reforms in the politics.

yes to waiting because, ilang tulog na lang.

Dave Llorito said...

that's my hope, and prayer.

indeed, ilang tulong na lang.

lulu said...

i agree 100%...aussie recently posted a mere 5% growth compared to the rest of asian countries, my beloved country is in a better position..however, stability & sustainability will be the key in the coming years..i hope these economics numbers will not be a flash in the pan....

Dave Llorito said...

but i should say that australia and the philippines are not comparable. australia is a mature economy; a 4-5 percent growth sustained for a decade or two is an amazing performance at that level of development. but the philippines recent gdp numbers are definitely encouraging, as they are fueled by hard won policy reforms. should we achieve a generally clean election by 2010, i guess we could sustain those growth figures.

deep caring said...

"GMA has nothing to do with this. These improving growth numbers are legacies of the first wave of reforms done following the Edsa Revolution. So the credit goes elsewhere, especially Cory and FVR, and of course, to OFWs, the farmers, business, and entrepreneurs. Had GMA proved to be a better president, we could have achieved higher growth rates, probably at par with Vietnam and India (7-8 percent)."

I think you better expound this line of argument. What is actually the basis of this so-called "first wave of reforms?" What are these reforms?

Dave Llorito said...

you should have clicked on the links i provided. but anyway, try reading this: http://davidllorito.blogspot.com/2006/07/philippines-needs-second-wave-of.html

Gian Paolo said...

Now, if the political situation here will be just stable...

anthony scalia said...

This is not a pro-gloria post - but whether the present growth rate is sustainable or not can only be ascertained in the future. Its an after the fact evaluation.

With the kind of environment she's in, the figures are quite an achievement. At least in Vietnam and India, there are no opposition, no trillanes, no guingona. The government can focus on its economic task

And I take issue with your view that economic reforms started with Tita Cory. No, the reforms really started with FVR. So whats Tita Cory's economic legacy? Her kamag-anak inc.

Whats funny about Pinoys is that the growth rates are good despite gloria being around, but we still believe that the figures will go higher as soon as gloria steps down!

Dave Llorito said...

no one could really say whether or not growth could be sustained given the fact that a considerable part of it is externally driven. but hey we should also credit ourselves.

and yes, ramos got lots of reforms but the dismantling of monopolies in sugar and coco trading started with cory. even the tariff reform program kicked off with her. but really, its true that FVR pushed it a bit further.

would growth rates rise even higher after gloria leaves power? it depends. if the 2010 elections is credible, we might yet have a less volatile enviroment and therefore more conducive to business. im crossing my fingers of course.