Why the Trillanes caper failed? Simple: the success factors are not there.
First, Trillanes and company failed to consider the 2010 factor. Politicians these days are now looking at the 2010 election as the reference point for their short-term political decisions. Hence, they would look with discomfort any action or event that deviates from that, especially something that’s being pushed by the likes of Trillanes. A junta that would emerge from a military rebellion is anathema to the presidential ambitions of bigwigs like Senator Villar, Senator Ping Lacson, Mar Roxas, Loren Legarda, to cite a few.
Second is the economic growth factor. The Philippine economy grew by 7.1 percent in the first nine months of the year. Big business engaged in real estate and construction, mining, outsourcing, electronics, finance, telecommunications, etc are now raking in money. So are the technical, professional, and managerial classes supporting these fast-growing sectors. With the increasing globalization of labor markets, even the lower middle classes have options other than becoming pawns in political games. So these people—crucial to the success of previous “people power” cum military revolts—now have a stake in the relative “stability” of the system.
Third, we Filipinos have probably learned some lessons from our previous “people power revolutions.” We probably have realized that we need to develop constitutional liberalism in this country if we want to mature as a nation.